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| Russian SU-24 |
Turkey's Claim:A SU-24 jet was 19,000 feet high in Turkey’s airspace for 17 seconds and travelled 1.84 km across the southern tip.
Facts
Generally in less tense times air incursions happen pretty regularly but generally you’d expect warning shots to be fired and attempts to force the intruder to leave or to land. Not was this case in Syria between Turkey and Russia.
The Turks shot down a Russian Su-24 jet and did so within 17 seconds – with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu revealing that he personally gave the order to down the Russian Su-24 fighter jet– suggesting very strongly they were waiting for a Russian plane to come into or close enough to Turkish airspace with the aim of delivering a rather pyrotechnic message.
This is a highly ambiguous allegation and much media is neglecting to consider some of the mathematical facts.
The Su-24's max speed is 1320 km/hour (at sea level) and can be greater at a higher altitude i.e. 19,000 feet per Turkey's letter to the UN, so it would mean that the SU-24 would have been in an out (if it is was) of Turkish airspace (1.84 km width) in 5 seconds! Whereas the Turks claim it was in for 17 seconds.
This means that the supersonic jet on a mission of war would have been flying at a much less stable or controllable 390 km/hour speed. Highly impossible.
Now in context, Ankara is fiercly anti-Assad and in addition to being generally displeased with Russia's efforts to support the regime, just four days ago, Turkey summoned Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov over the alleged bombing of Turkish villages near the border. Ankara warned bombing villages populated by the Turkmen minority in Syria could lead to 'serious consequences.'
Of course Russia wasn't just bombing Turkish civilians for the sheer hell of it. It's likely Moscow was targeting the very same FSA-affiliated Alwiya al-Ashar militiamen who shot and killed the parachuting Russian pilot earlier that day.
In short, it looks like Ankara saw an opportunity to shoot down a Russian jet in retaliation for strikes on Turkish rebel fighters who are operating alongside anti-Assad forces. Erdogan is essentially gambling that Russia will not retaliate militarily against Turkey because doing so would open the door for a direct confrontation with NATO.
I hope our Prime Minister gets all the facts before jumping in with NATO. Treaty or not.
